Uncertainty of the Ground Water Fluctuation Based on ANN Approach

Shashindra Kumar Sachan, Arpan Sherring, Derrick M. Denis
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Abstract

This study pursues to determine the accuracy of the groundwater level fluctuations forecasted at the Kanpur district of India using artificial neural networks (ANNs). The results indicated that performance of multilayer perceptron (MLP) based neural network (M-3, architecture 4-18-1) is satisfactory in the groundwater level fluctuations forecasting. The performance assessment shows that the MLP model performs significantly better. The uncertainty analysis shows that, input of Absent- RF and Absent- ERF, Absent- GWt-1, and Absent- GWt-5 were found more sensitive for GWFs forecasting and can’t ignore as input combination & input of Absent- WS and RH were found less sensitive for GWFs forecasting and may be discarded as input combination for GWFs forecasting.
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基于人工神经网络方法的地下水波动不确定性研究
本研究旨在探讨利用人工神经网络(ann)预测印度坎普尔地区地下水位波动的准确性。结果表明,基于多层感知器(MLP)的神经网络(M-3,结构4-18-1)在地下水位波动预测中的效果令人满意。性能评估表明,MLP模型的性能明显较好。不确定性分析表明,Absent- RF和Absent- ERF、Absent- GWt-1和Absent- GWt-5的输入对gwf预测较为敏感,不能作为输入组合忽略;Absent- WS和RH的输入对gwf预测较不敏感,可以作为gwf预测的输入组合丢弃。
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