Modelling Earthquake’s Inter-event Recurrence Intervals (IRIs) in Central India and Adjoining Regions using Weibull Probability Distribution Model – A Zone-Wise Approach

Abstract

This study analyzes and model zone-wise earthquakes inter-event recurrence interval (IRIs) using a stochastic Weibull probabilistic distribution model. The study region between 19–28◦N and 72–84◦E up to 200 km peripheral boundaries of Central India (Madhya Pradesh) is divided into four zones (Zone South, West, North, and East), respectively, based on different clusters of earthquakes with shared seismo-tectonic regimes. Seismic events’ catalog from different national and international resources for a period of more than 100 years are considered in this study. The seismic data is grouped into two categories based on a different range of earthquake magnitudes (3≤Mw< 4 & 4 ≤ M w ≤ 6). Zonewise results are produced in the form of hazard curves and conditional probabilities of occurrence for a range of elapsed time from 3 to 30 years from last recorded earthquakes in various zones.