A mathematical model to forecast solar PV performance

IF 1 4区工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI:10.1080/02533839.2023.2204896

T.S Bagavat Perumaal, P. Seshadri, B. Ashok kumar, S. Senthilrani

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

ABSTRACT This work focuses on developing a mathematical model to forecast the performance of solar PV. In the present scenario, solar photovoltaic performance has been envisaged by considering the impact of limited variables subject to certain assumptions and conditions and the current work drives the attention toward the effect of temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity, and panel aging effects. There hasn’t been any breakthrough in the previous research so far while collectively analyzing the efficiency loss in solar photovoltaic, due to the aforementioned parameters. Hence, this work aims to develop a mathematical model in view of the above-mentioned parameters. This work has been experimented using MATLAB software and online simulation tools are used to validate the results. The results are favorable with the deviation of efficiency between the online simulation tool and the proposed mathematical model being 2–4%. Furthermore, a real-time case study has been carried out at a solar power plant installed at Thiagarajar College of Engineering, Madurai, Tamilnadu, to validate the proposed mathematical model. It is observed that the absolute difference in power between the simulation and the actual meter reading is between 30 and 60 Watts with an RMSE between 5 and 16% and MPE of 675 Watts.

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预测太阳能光伏性能的数学模型

本研究的重点是建立一个数学模型来预测太阳能光伏发电的性能。在目前的场景中，太阳能光伏性能是通过考虑在一定假设和条件下有限变量的影响来设想的，目前的工作将注意力转向温度、相对湿度、风速和面板老化效应的影响。由于上述参数的原因，在对太阳能光伏效率损失进行综合分析时，前人的研究至今没有取得任何突破。因此，本工作旨在针对上述参数建立一个数学模型。利用MATLAB软件进行了实验，并利用在线仿真工具对结果进行了验证。结果表明，在线仿真工具与数学模型之间的效率偏差为2-4%。此外，在泰米尔纳德邦马杜赖Thiagarajar工程学院的一个太阳能发电厂进行了实时案例研究，以验证所提出的数学模型。可以观察到，模拟和实际仪表读数之间的绝对功率差在30到60瓦之间，RMSE在5到16%之间，MPE为675瓦。

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来源期刊

Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers 工程技术-工程：综合

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

9.10%

发文量

审稿时长

6.8 months

期刊介绍： Encompassing a wide range of engineering disciplines and industrial applications, JCIE includes the following topics: 1.Chemical engineering 2.Civil engineering 3.Computer engineering 4.Electrical engineering 5.Electronics 6.Mechanical engineering and fields related to the above.