PODIUM: Projecting water supply and demand for food production in 2025

Abstract

Since 1997, IWMI has been developing models to investigate future food and water requirements. Since the initial results were published (Seckler et al., 1998), the data and methodologies were refined substantially, evolving into the PODIUM model. The model estimates projected increases in water demand in 2025 resulting from the expected population growth and changes in consumption pattern, for individual nations. The PODIUM model provides a user-friendly means to analyze alternative future scenarios and conduct sensitivity analysis.

As part of the World Water Vision 2025 exercise, the PODIUM model was used to test a range of scenarios related to food and water demand. In the IWMI base scenario, 33 percent of the population of the studied countries will face absolute water scarcity. These countries will not have sufficient water resources to meet water needs.

Another 45 percent of the population live in countries that will face economic scarcity. Countries in this category may not have the capacity or financial resources to develop sufficient water resources. Globally, water diversions to agriculture will grow by 17 percent. Fifteen countries, mainly in the Middle East and Africa, will rely on cereal imports for more than 25 percent of their grain consumption (Seckler et al., 2000).

This paper presents the modeling strategies adopted in the PODIUM model and the results obtained during the development of the World Water Vision (Rijsberman and Cosgrove, 2000). These results indicate the need for substantial investment in water resources development, improving agricultural water use and expansion of both irrigated and rain-fed agriculture.