Abdul Mongid, S. Suhartono, Evi Sistiyarini, Sutan Emir
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study was conducted to assess the vulnerability of Islamic banking credit portfolios under macroeconomic shocks and their impact on NPFs, using the linear regression analysis. From the three proposed models, namely OLS, ARIMAX and Error Correction Model (ECM), the ECM model was selected as the best. By using the Montecarlo simulation, an estimate was made of the possible future value of the NPF in Islamic banking. The study established that exchange rates, economic disparities, inflation, economic growth and interest rates showed positive and significant effects on bank credit risk whereas inflation produced negative effects. The non-performing finance (NPF) was also estimated using the Montecarlo simulation using one million trials. The results were subsequently used to conduct a stress test for the projected NPF. With 99% confidence, the maximum potential value of bad credit was 21%. The maximum NPF bad credit was attained under confidence level of 95%.
期刊介绍：
International Journal of Business and Society (IJBS) is an international scholarly journal devoted in publishing high-quality papers using multidisciplinary approaches with a strong emphasis on business, economics and finance. It is a triannual journal published in April, August and December and all articles submitted are in English. Our uniqueness focus on the impact of ever-changing world towards the society based on our niche area of research. IJBS follows a double-blind peer-review process, whereby authors do not know reviewers and vice versa. The journal intends to serve as an outlet with strong theoretical and empirical research and the papers submitted to IJBS should not have been published or be under consideration for publication elsewhere.
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