Regression Analysis for Crop Production Using CLARANS Algorithm

Abstract

Crop production rate relies on rainfall over Rejang Lebong district. Data showed a discrepancy between increased crop production and rainfall in Rejang Lebong District. However, the spatiotemporal distribution of the crop variable's dependencies remains unclear. This study analyses the relationship between rainfall and crop production rate in the Rejang Lebong district based on the performance of the machine learning method. In addition, this research also performed regression analysis to carry out rainfall clusters and crop production. This order provides information in the form of cluster results to determine how much the rainfall variable influences the crop production rate  in each cluster. Harnessing the Elbow, CLARANS, Simple Linear Regression, and Silhouette Coefficient methods, this study used 231 rainfall data sourced from the Bengkulu BMKG and 110 data for plant production obtained from BPS Bengkulu Province from 2000-2022. This research found that the optimal clusters were 3 clusters. C1 contains 106 data with the largest regression value for chili = 0.127, C2 contains 15 data with the largest regression value for mustard greens = 0.135, and C3 contains 110 data with the largest regression value for cabbage = 0.408, eggplant = 0.197, and carrots = 0.201. Furthermore, this research also found that the biggest correlation of crops with highly significant improvement would be cabbage commodity (Y=0.4114X+0.2013) and chili plantation with high RSME (0.9897).