Fuzzy Reliability Based Bow Tie Analysis of Coal Mine Water Inrush Risks

Abstract

Water inrush is a serious geological accident in underground coal mines. This paper focuses on the method of the bow tie analysis based on fuzzy reliability to assess the risk of water inrush in coal mines. First, post failure probability and repair probability of initiating events are divided into 5 levels. Then triangular fuzzy numbers are adopted to quantify experts’ language and to acquire the reliability rate which close to the actual values by defuzzification and calculation.  According to dynamic bow-tie analysis model, using the method of moments to fit the reliability time of events by Weibull distribution and offering the random sampling rule of failure and repair time for illustrating the feasibility of fuzzy reliability evaluation.  To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed assessment approach, bow tie analysis model of water inrush in coal mines is taken as an example.