Supply Chain Decoupling: Geopolitical Debates and Economic Dynamism in East Asia

IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Asian Economic Policy Review Pub Date : 2023-08-09 DOI:10.1111/aepr.12439
Mitsuyo Ando, Kazunobu Hayakawa, Fukunari Kimura
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Abstract

Supply chain decoupling in the US–China confrontation has generated serious uncertainties for private businesses. This paper focuses on machinery international production networks in East Asia and tries to find quantitative evidence on supply chain decoupling by using international trade statistics, particularly from the viewpoint of middle powers such as Japan. While data on the sectoral level of trade do not show any clear evidence of supply chain decoupling, some specific US export controls indeed affect international transactions when examined at a finely disaggregated level. We econometrically measure the effect of some of the US policies on Japanese exports to China. The recent strengthening of US export controls related to supercomputers and advanced integrated circuits is likely to generate further effects. Nevertheless, the supply chain decoupling seems to end up as a partial one, and a large portion of International Production Networks (IPNs) may remain active. In conclusion, the paper briefly discusses the policy implications of the analysis.

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供应链脱钩:东亚地缘政治辩论与经济活力
中美对抗中的供应链脱钩给私营企业带来了严重的不确定性。本文重点关注东亚的机械国际生产网络,并试图利用国际贸易统计数据,特别是从日本等中等强国的视角,寻找供应链脱钩的量化证据。虽然贸易部门层面的数据并未显示出供应链脱钩的明确证据,但从细分层面来看,美国的一些特定出口管制确实影响了国际交易。我们用计量经济学方法测算了美国某些政策对日本对华出口的影响。最近,美国加强了对超级计算机和先进集成电路的出口管制,这可能会产生进一步的影响。尽管如此,供应链脱钩似乎只是局部的,大部分国际生产网络(IPNs)可能会继续保持活跃。最后,本文简要讨论了分析的政策影响。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
12.90
自引率
2.60%
发文量
39
期刊介绍: The goal of the Asian Economic Policy Review is to become an intellectual voice on the current issues of international economics and economic policy, based on comprehensive and in-depth analyses, with a primary focus on Asia. Emphasis is placed on identifying key issues at the time - spanning international trade, international finance, the environment, energy, the integration of regional economies and other issues - in order to furnish ideas and proposals to contribute positively to the policy debate in the region.
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