Emergency level scale assessment model: ELSA. A new diagnostic system to support decision-making in case of accidental spills in the marine environment

Abstract

ELSA is a new diagnostic system to support decision-making in respect of accidental spills in the marine environment. This paper describes the newly developed methodology, intended to analyse and to characterize the gravity of an accident, which matches in an adequate way the needsfor simplicity, speed and completeness in the initial stages of an accident. By this approach the gravity of an accident is presented in an overall scale of value which is easy to interpret. The overall gravity is the sum of the subscale value(s) for hazards such as toxicity in air, bioaccumulation, persistence, flammability, explosiveness, toxicity in water, corrosiveness, carcinogenicity or radioactivity. The approach is based on criteria such as practicality, acceptability, accuracy and completeness, and is intended for operational use in the initial stage of an accident. The methodology is therefore implemented on a computer model to describe and quantify, as fast as possible, the gravity of an accident which involves substances that have the potential to produce adverse effects on the marine environment, users of the sea or response personnel. Such a diagnostic system is necessary for appropriate decisions on the cautionary response (the protection of human life and health, and the protection of the natural environment) and the corrective response (recovery and containment or control of the pollution). This model may assist responsible authorities in judging the gravity of an accident at sea and will provide a means whereby the general public and the press will more easily reach a reasonable assessment of the true nature of accidents to which the authorities are responding.