Looking Forward and Backward at Extreme Event Attribution in Climate Policy

Abstract

ABSTRACT How the science of probabilistic extreme event attribution might inform climate change adaptation is hotly debated. Central to these debates is an understanding that event attribution’s backward-looking orientation aligns poorly with the forward-facing goals of adaptation policy. Here, I analyze two new philosophical arguments that challenge this understanding and claim that probabilistic event attribution is not only forward-looking, but has a potentially significant role in risk-pooling adaptive strategies. I argue the purported forward-looking capabilities of event attribution are based on a mischaracterization of the scientific methodology, and one consequence of this mischaracterization is a limited role in adaptive risk-pooling schemes.