Ethylene economics and production forecasting in a changing environment

Abstract

An historical perspective is presented with an emphasis on major uses for ethylene and past ethylene supply and demand balances and prices. Then an exponential model is developed that correlates annual U.S. ethylene production over more than three decades with a coefficient of determination of 0.99. Next, future U.S. ethylene supply and demand and prices are discussed within the context of a changing environment. Special consideration is given to the influence of future markets, energy needs, end products, and feedstocks. A review of fast ethylene production forecasts is presented, and our model is used to forecast ethylene production for the next decade. Finally, the changing international ethylene picture is analyzed with emphasis on Western Europe, Japan, and the Middle East.