Forecasting Confirmed Malaria Cases in Northwestern Province of Zambia: A Time Series Analysis Using 2014–2020 Routine Data

Abstract

Background. Malaria remains a significant public health problem, especially in resource-poor settings. We aimed to forecast the year 2021 monthly confirmed malaria cases in the northwestern province of Zambia. Methods. The total number of confirmed monthly malaria cases recorded at health facilities over the past 7-years period (January 2014 to December 2020) was taken from the District Health Information System version 2 (DHIS.2) database. Box–Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to forecast monthly confirmed malaria cases for 2021. STATA software version 16 was used for analyzing the time series data. Results. Between 2014 and 2020, there were 3,795,541 confirmed malaria cases in the northwestern province with a monthly mean of 45,185 cases. ARIMA (2, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)12 was the best fit and the most parsimonious model. The forecasted mean monthly confirmed malaria cases were 60,284 (95%CI 30,969–121,944), and the total forecasted confirmed malaria cases were 723,413 (95%CI 371,626–1,463,322) for the year 2021. Conclusion. The forecasted confirmed malaria cases suggest that there will be an increase in the number of confirmed malaria cases for the year 2021 in the northwestern province. Therefore, there is a need for concerted efforts to prevent and eliminate the disease if the goal to eliminate malaria in Zambia by 2030 is to be realized.