{"title":"Using hospital data for monitoring the dynamics of COVID-19 in France","authors":"M. Lavielle","doi":"10.52933/jdssv.v2i7.48","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The objective of this article is to show how daily hospital data can be used to monitor the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in France. A piecewise defined dynamic model allows to fit very well the available hospital admission, death and discharge data. The change-points detected correspond to moments when the dynamics of the epidemic changed abruptly. It is therefore a surveillance tool, not a forecasting tool. In other words, it can be used effectively to warn of a restart of epidemic activity, but it is not designed to assess the impact of a new lockdown or the emergence of a new variant.The model, data and fits are implemented in an interactive web application.","PeriodicalId":93459,"journal":{"name":"Journal of data science, statistics, and visualisation","volume":"76 1","pages":"46-62"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of data science, statistics, and visualisation","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.52933/jdssv.v2i7.48","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
The objective of this article is to show how daily hospital data can be used to monitor the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in France. A piecewise defined dynamic model allows to fit very well the available hospital admission, death and discharge data. The change-points detected correspond to moments when the dynamics of the epidemic changed abruptly. It is therefore a surveillance tool, not a forecasting tool. In other words, it can be used effectively to warn of a restart of epidemic activity, but it is not designed to assess the impact of a new lockdown or the emergence of a new variant.The model, data and fits are implemented in an interactive web application.
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