Mapping Support for a Revolution: Evidence from Ukraine

Abstract

Abstract Using a unique and previously untapped dataset of telegrams sent to student hunger strikers in Soviet Ukraine, this article examines spatial dispersion of civil resistance in a repressive political regime. The study argues that national identity, compared to socioeconomic grievances, explains better the level of opposition in a multiethnic, authoritarian state. The analysis demonstrates that support for the student hunger strike, also known as the Granite Revolution, was higher in areas with a larger proportion of Ukrainian-language speakers. Additionally, the rate of telegram-sending was significantly higher in areas with a more robust presence of the reform-oriented social movement Rukh. Meanwhile, socioeconomic grievances exerted a weaker impact on the rate of telegraphing support for the pro-democracy student movement. Moreover, contrary to classic modernization theory, opposition to the communist regime is found to be lower in areas with a higher level of urbanization. The profile of senders, as well as the content of telegrams, also suggests that identity-based grievances prevailed among supporters of the Granite Revolution. The study makes an empirical contribution to contentious politics literature by exploring patterns of civil resistance and political communication in the era preceding the rise of social media.