Simulating land use change in the southern part of Warsaw Metropolitan Area with application of Dyna-CLUE model

Abstract

The present research covers the issue of prediction of changes of the land use appearing due to progressing urban sprawl process in Piaseczno county, located in the Warsaw Metropolitan Area. The Dyna-CLUE land use change model was applied, assuming a variety of scenarios pertaining to the direction of change of land use within a time prospect of 20 and 35 years. The scenarios pertaining to the expected land use changes are developed with consideration given to the expected population changes. When implementing the Dyna-CLUE model, 8 factors having impact on the land use patterns within the research area are considered. As a result of the modelling, maps demonstrating the expected land use patterns have been created, making it possible to indicate municipalities and areas within which there is the highest probability of emergence of new buildings.