Kaare Græsbøll, L. Christiansen, U. H. Thygesen, C. Kirkeby
{"title":"Delaying the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic with travel restrictions","authors":"Kaare Græsbøll, L. Christiansen, U. H. Thygesen, C. Kirkeby","doi":"10.1515/em-2020-0042","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Objectives: Travel restrictions is an often-used tool for governments to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Methods: We here used a simple simulation model to investigate the potential effects of travel restrictions within a country. Results: We found that travel restrictions can delay the peak of the epidemic considerably, but do not affect the spread within the country. We also investigated the effect of implementing travel restrictions early or later in the epidemic, and found that fast implementation is crucial for delaying the epidemic. Conclusions: Fast implementation of travel restrictions is crucial for delaying the peak of a subsequent outbreak of COVID-19 within a country.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"3","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Epidemiologic Methods","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2020-0042","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Mathematics","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Abstract
Abstract Objectives: Travel restrictions is an often-used tool for governments to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Methods: We here used a simple simulation model to investigate the potential effects of travel restrictions within a country. Results: We found that travel restrictions can delay the peak of the epidemic considerably, but do not affect the spread within the country. We also investigated the effect of implementing travel restrictions early or later in the epidemic, and found that fast implementation is crucial for delaying the epidemic. Conclusions: Fast implementation of travel restrictions is crucial for delaying the peak of a subsequent outbreak of COVID-19 within a country.
期刊介绍：
Epidemiologic Methods (EM) seeks contributions comparable to those of the leading epidemiologic journals, but also invites papers that may be more technical or of greater length than what has traditionally been allowed by journals in epidemiology. Applications and examples with real data to illustrate methodology are strongly encouraged but not required. Topics. genetic epidemiology, infectious disease, pharmaco-epidemiology, ecologic studies, environmental exposures, screening, surveillance, social networks, comparative effectiveness, statistical modeling, causal inference, measurement error, study design, meta-analysis
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