Crude Birth Rate in Croatia: local-scale variability, spatial patterns, and trends from 2001 to 2020

Abstract

This study investigates the spatio-temporal variability of the Crude Birth Rate in Croatia between 2001 and 2020. The local-scale data covers 556 spatial units. Additionally, the data covers categories by type and size of unit and their respective regions. The study is based on descriptive and spatial statistics (Global and Local Moran's indices). The results reveal two main processes in the long-term trends of birth rates in Croatia: convergence at a low birth rate and a significant decrease in spatial autocorrelation. The most intense convergence took place between 2009 and 2017, mainly overlapping with the economic recession period. The process was also observed at the regional level. Spatial autocorrelation decreased between 2001 and 2016, followed by a slight increase. In the initial years, the main cause could be modernization, and later the economic recession and the subsequent emigration wave that followed Croatia's accession to the European Union. Finally, the continuation of the polarization between the center and the periphery is evident.