CALCULATION OF GENERATOR REABILITY INDEX WITH LOAD FORECASTING AT PLTU (ELECTRIC STEAM POWER PLANT) ANGGREK IN GORONTALO

Irna Tri Yuniahastuti, Tedy Ardiansyah
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Abstract

The calculation of the reliability at the PLTU Anggrek 2×25 MW Gorontalo obtained a LOLP value of 61.5 days/year. This value was still above the standardreliability value of PLN, this was due to the occurrence of PO (Planned Outage) and MO (Maintenance Outage) in unit 2 in June-July 2021, namely in theform of the first-year inspection in July. The FOR (Force Outage Rate) value was calculated based on the disturbance data from the generator in 2021. Thedaily load value was obtained from the load forecast value in January-July using FIS (Fuzzy Inference System) Mamdani type using the Matlab Toolbox. Theerror value in the proposed load forecast was 8%. The rules that had been compiled were used to predict expenses in August-December 2021. From the resultsof forecasting From the results of forecasting expenses, it was found that the trend of expenses was increasing every month.left with 10-pt Times New Roman bold. The abstract must be contained in one paragraph.
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基于负荷预测的戈伦塔洛电力蒸汽发电厂发电机可靠性指标计算
在PLTU Anggrek 2×25 MW Gorontalo进行可靠性计算,得到的LOLP值为61.5天/年。该值仍然高于PLN的标准可靠性值,这是由于2号机组在2021年6 - 7月发生了PO (Planned停用)和MO (Maintenance停用),即以7月的第一年检查的形式出现。FOR(停电率)值是根据2021年发电机的干扰数据计算的。利用Matlab工具箱,利用FIS(模糊推理系统)Mamdani型对1 - 7月负荷预测值进行日负荷计算。提出的负荷预测误差值为8%。编制的规则用于预测2021年8月至12月的费用。从预测结果来看,从预测费用的结果来看,费用的趋势是每月增加。左边用10倍新罗马字体加粗。摘要必须包含在一个段落中。
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