Uncertainty Quantification of Hydrologic Model

Abstract

Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), a simplified Bayesian method, was adopted to determine the parametric uncertainty in hydrological modeling. A preliminary analysis of the summer flows of the Kootenay Watershed, Canada, was modeled to portray a typical uncertainty analysis procedure. SLURP, a robust hydrologic model was chosen for this procedure. The results demonstrated the viability of applying the GLUE method in conjunction with the SLURP hydrological model, following which the posterior probability distributions of the parameters was analyzed. The performance of this technique was verified by examining the flows’ prediction intervals for a period of 2 years, enabling valid future hydrological forecasting for the watershed.