Reviewing drivers of ecosystem change as input for environmental and ecosystem services modelling

Abstract

Environmental modelling combined with scenarios provides insights into drivers of change, potential implications of different trajectories, and options for action. So far, there has been no endeavor to assess the breadth of assumptions concerning drivers of ecosystem change on a global and European level as used in various scenario approaches. Our paper fills this gap by reviewing drivers of 27 global and European scenarios to provide an overview of extreme assumptions. Additionally, results can support quantification efforts of storylines to test environmental and ES models and to facilitate participatory scenario development to improve the usefulness of modelling approaches for stakeholders.