Analysis of meat price volatility and volatility spillovers in Finland

Abstract

Unforeseen important changes in price can present a significant risk in the market. The price fluctuation of agricultural commodities has raised concern for studying the volatility of different agricultural products. A persistent volatility in prices causes continued uncertainty in the market. Higher price volatility is to be mitigated by higher management costs and the higher cost of risk mitigation is often converted into higher producer prices. The aim of this paper is to investigate the price volatility of producer and consumer meat prices and to capture the volatility spillover along the Finnish meat supply chain. The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity – Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner (GARCH-BEKK) model is applied to analyse shocks and volatilities of the prices and to estimate whether the price volatility is flowing from the first price level (producer) to the second price level (consumer), using monthly price indices. An asymmetric volatility spillover effect was detected in the poultry meat and a unidirectional, volatility spillover effect, from consumer to producer, is observed for pork prices. The findings of this study could serve as a tool for forecasting meat producer and consumer prices, which could assist the Finnish government with endorsing policy options to alleviate the price volatility impact, to protect both consumers and producers from its negative effects.