Cross-impact Balances: A Method for Bridging Social Systems and Cybernetics

Abstract

Social scientists apply cybernetic thought in subfields such as sociocybernetics; however, their applications are qualitatively inclined, limiting their ability to provide predictions useful for decision support. The quasi-qualitative method of cross-impact balances (CIB) offers a potential bridge between social scientific applications of cybernetics and cybernetic research that is more mechanistic, such as expert systems. This paper introduces the method of cross-impact balances (CIB) and serves as an invitation to systems scientists, systems engineers, and cyberneticians with shared interests in decision support for social system modeling and control. The problem of deep uncertainty in risk and policy research, as well as the potential for advances in second-order cybernetics through interdisciplinary research, are also discussed.