{"title":"Stochastic Model for the Spread of the COVID-19 Virus","authors":"Majdi Elhiwi","doi":"10.4236/AM.2021.121003","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic has become a great challenge to scientific, biological and medical research as well as to economic and social sciences. Hence, the objective of infectious disease modeling-based data analysis is to recover these dynamics of infectious disease spread and to estimate parameters that govern these dynamics. The random aspect of epidemics leads to the development of stochastic epidemiological models. We establish a stochastic combined model using numerical scheme Euler, Markov chain and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovery (SEIR) model. The combined SEIR model was used to predict how epidemics will develop and then to act accordingly. These COVID-19 data were analyzed from several countries such as Italy, Russia, USA and Iran.","PeriodicalId":55568,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematics-A Journal of Chinese Universities Series B","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Applied Mathematics-A Journal of Chinese Universities Series B","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.4236/AM.2021.121003","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has become a great challenge to scientific, biological and medical research as well as to economic and social sciences. Hence, the objective of infectious disease modeling-based data analysis is to recover these dynamics of infectious disease spread and to estimate parameters that govern these dynamics. The random aspect of epidemics leads to the development of stochastic epidemiological models. We establish a stochastic combined model using numerical scheme Euler, Markov chain and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovery (SEIR) model. The combined SEIR model was used to predict how epidemics will develop and then to act accordingly. These COVID-19 data were analyzed from several countries such as Italy, Russia, USA and Iran.
期刊介绍：
Applied Mathematics promotes the integration of mathematics with other scientific disciplines, expanding its fields of study and promoting the development of relevant interdisciplinary subjects.
The journal mainly publishes original research papers that apply mathematical concepts, theories and methods to other subjects such as physics, chemistry, biology, information science, energy, environmental science, economics, and finance. In addition, it also reports the latest developments and trends in which mathematics interacts with other disciplines. Readers include professors and students, professionals in applied mathematics, and engineers at research institutes and in industry.
Applied Mathematics - A Journal of Chinese Universities has been an English-language quarterly since 1993. The English edition, abbreviated as Series B, has different contents than this Chinese edition, Series A.
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