Modified EKF for Covid-19 prediction with 3 mobility restrictions (Study Case: Indonesia)

Abstract

In this paper, the spread of the Covid-19 in.Indonesia is described by the SIRD epidemiological mathematical model. The mathematical model used in this paper is Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Death (SIRD). The modified extended Kalman filter algorithm is applied to predict the spread of Covid-19 in.the future. We modified the algorithm by generating real data based on the previous estimation results. The real data generated from the generation is used at the correction stage to obtain prediction results in a fairly long period. Simulations were carried out with three types of mobility restrictions, namely mobility 100%, mobility 75%, and mobility 50%. Based on the simulation results, it can be concluded that mobility restrictions in Indonesia, which starts on September 4, 2020, can reduce the number of infected and death individuals and can increase the number of individuals who recover from Covid-19. © 2022 Author(s).