{"title":"Modeling the incidence and death rates of COVID-19 pandemic in different regions of the world","authors":"R. P. de Oliveira, J. Achcar, A. Nunes","doi":"10.1515/em-2020-0017","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper reports a broad study using epidemic-related counting data of COVID-19 disease caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). The considered dataset refers to 119 countries’ daily counts of reported cases and deaths in a fixed period. For the data analysis, it has been adopted a beta regression model assuming different regions of the world where it was possible to discover important economic, health and social factors affecting the behavior of the pandemic in different countries. The Bayesian method was applied to fit the proposed model. Some interesting conclusions were obtained in this study, which could be of great interest to epidemiologists, health authorities, and the general public in the face of the forthcoming hard times of the global pandemic.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"9","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Epidemiologic Methods","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2020-0017","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Mathematics","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Abstract
Abstract This paper reports a broad study using epidemic-related counting data of COVID-19 disease caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). The considered dataset refers to 119 countries’ daily counts of reported cases and deaths in a fixed period. For the data analysis, it has been adopted a beta regression model assuming different regions of the world where it was possible to discover important economic, health and social factors affecting the behavior of the pandemic in different countries. The Bayesian method was applied to fit the proposed model. Some interesting conclusions were obtained in this study, which could be of great interest to epidemiologists, health authorities, and the general public in the face of the forthcoming hard times of the global pandemic.
期刊介绍：
Epidemiologic Methods (EM) seeks contributions comparable to those of the leading epidemiologic journals, but also invites papers that may be more technical or of greater length than what has traditionally been allowed by journals in epidemiology. Applications and examples with real data to illustrate methodology are strongly encouraged but not required. Topics. genetic epidemiology, infectious disease, pharmaco-epidemiology, ecologic studies, environmental exposures, screening, surveillance, social networks, comparative effectiveness, statistical modeling, causal inference, measurement error, study design, meta-analysis
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