Paired satellite and NWP precipitation for global flood forecasting

Abstract

Precipitation data is known to be the key driver of hydrological simulations. Hence, reliable quantitative precipitation estimates and forecasts are vital for accurate hydrological forecasting. Satellite-based precipitation estimates from Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM Early Run (IMERG-E) and forecasted precipitation from NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-FP) have shown values in global flood nowcasting and forecasting. However, few studies have comprehensively evaluated their hydrological performance, let alone exploring the potential value of combining them. Therefore, this study undertakes a quasi-global evaluation of their utility in real-time hydrological monitoring and 1-5-day forecasting with the DRIVE model. The gauge-corrected IMERG Final Run precipitation estimates and corresponding hydrological simulation are used as the references. Results showed that the hit bias is the dominant error source of IMERG-E, while the false precipitation is more noticeable in GEOS-FP. In terms of hydrological performance, GEOS-FP driven model (DRIVE-FP) performance is close to IMERG-E driven model (DRIVE-E) performance on Day 1, indicating that GEOS-FP could nicely fill the gap of nowcasting caused by the IMERG-E time latency. For longer lead time forecasts, the bias tends to diminish in most regions likely because the under-/over-estimation in IMERG-E is generally offset by the distinct types of misestimation in GEOS-FP. The skillful initial hydrological conditions present outperformed forecasts in most region, except for tropical areas where the accuracy of GEOS-FP prevails. Overall, this study provides a valuable view of the combined use of IMERG-E and GEOS-FP precipitation in the context of hydrological nowcasts and forecasts.