Longevity, Life-Cycle Behavior and Pension Reform

Q3 Social Sciences Social Security Bulletin Pub Date : 2013-07-18 DOI:10.2139/ssrn.1916585
P. Haan, Victoria Prowse
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引用次数: 79

Abstract

How can public pension systems be reformed to ensure fiscal stability in the face of increasing life expectancy? To address this question, we use micro data to estimate a structural life-cycle model of individuals’ employment, retirement and consumption decisions. We calculate that, in the case of Germany, an increase of 3.76 years in the pension age thresholds or a cut of 26.8% in the per-year value of public pension benefits would offset the fiscal consequences of the increase in life expectancy anticipated to occur over the next 40 years. On average, individuals value the increase in the pension age thresholds at 3.44% of baseline consumption, and are willing to forgo 8.51% of baseline consumption to avoid the cut in per-year pension value. The increase in the pension age thresholds makes 87.7% of individuals better-off, and generates large responses in labor supply and retirement behavior. However, the favorable effects of this reform depend on the availability of jobs for older individuals.
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寿命、生命周期行为与养老金改革
在预期寿命不断延长的情况下,如何改革公共养老金体系以确保财政稳定?为了解决这个问题,我们使用微观数据来估计个人就业、退休和消费决策的结构性生命周期模型。我们计算出,以德国为例,将领取养老金的年龄门槛提高3.76岁,或将公共养老金每年的价值降低26.8%,将抵消未来40年预期寿命增加所带来的财政后果。平均而言,个人认为养老金年龄门槛的提高为基准消费的3.44%,并且愿意放弃基准消费的8.51%以避免每年养老金价值的减少。提高领取养老金年龄门槛使87.7%的个人生活水平提高,并在劳动力供给和退休行为方面产生较大的反应。然而,这项改革的有利效果取决于为老年人提供工作的可能性。
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来源期刊
Social Security Bulletin
Social Security Bulletin Social Sciences-Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
0.70
自引率
0.00%
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0
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