Death probability analysis in the old aged population and smokers in India owing to COVID-19

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: Research has shown that older people and smokers have a higher death probability from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Thus, we investigated the effect of COVID-19 on death probability for individuals aged 65–70 years and smokers in India. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We did so using a differential learning (feed-backward) model. In the present study, we examined World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 data of India. We divided the patients into two groups accordingly: the population aged 65–70 years and female or male smokers. RESULTS: We observed that in the early stages of infection (up to 5 days), there was higher death probability in the older population; among smokers, it occurred in the middle period after infection (5–8 days). We estimated that the death probability among smokers was 1.905 times that of the older population. CONCLUSION: As Government of India, taking various initiatives to curb the spread of COVID-19, but these are not enough, so we suggest measures that should help to reduce COVID-19 infection in India.