Forecasting and Modelling the Oil and Gas Reserves in Indonesia Using the Creaming Curve and Linear Regression Analysis

Abstract

In early 2016, oil price has fallen to its lowest level (30.32 US$/bbl) over the last 12 years. Since then, petroleum exploration and exploitation activities are decreasing worldwide due to high production cost and low oil prices. As of December 2017, there were 435 projects approved by the government of Indonesia, which is expected to maintain the national energy supply and to increase national income from oil and gas industry. This paper will evaluate and analyze the oil and gas reserves per project to help Contractors to find the area in Indonesia that has the highest trend of oil and gas reserves per project so that they can produce big revenue. The purpose of this paper is, to divide the geographical areas of Indonesia into 5 different areas (Sumatera, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Papua). Then, to collect the data that related to projects and oil and gas discoveries and the trend of oil and gas discoveries per project are calculated and analyzed by using the creaming curve method, the result will be distributed to those aforementioned areas and finally define the area that has the highest and the lowest number (trend) of oil and gas discoveries per project. Based on the analysis of 435 Projects in Indonesia, Sulawesi is estimated to have the highest amount of oil and gas reserves by 111.24 MMBOE per project which means that these areas become the most interesting area for Contractors to produce profitable projects, meanwhile Sumatera is estimated to have the lowest amount of oil and gas reserves by 7.19 MMBOE per project which means that these areas are becoming the most mature area in Indonesia. Finally, this paper is expected to provide contractors a quick look at oil and gas industry in Indonesia especially the contractors who are looking for the giant oil and gas reserves and also help them create their petroleum exploration and exploitation strategy in Indonesia by considering on this information which will provide benefits for both government and contractor.