Decarceration, Sanction Severity and Crime: Causal Analysis of Proposition 47 and Property Crime in Los Angeles

IF 1.3 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Justice Evaluation Journal Pub Date : 2021-11-18 DOI:10.1080/24751979.2021.1996207
Matthew Renner, Bradley J. Bartos
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Abstract Decarcerative policies aim to decrease rates of incarceration primarily through lessening the severity of criminal sanctions. These policies have proliferated in recent years as states looked to reduce correctional expenditures and begin to reverse decades of growth in incarceration. Yet, there are relatively few empirical studies that examine decarcerative policies. This study evaluates the impact of California’s Proposition 47 (Prop 47), which reduced penalties for a variety of low-level offenses. We utilize a range of causal methods (difference in difference, triple difference, and synthetic control group analysis) to estimate the effects of the policy on property crime rates in the Los Angeles; and to examine the potential mechanisms driving these effects. We find robust evidence that Prop 47 increased property crime in Los Angeles, and this finding emerges across our methodological approaches. We discuss our findings in the context of a growing body of literature on Prop 47; and conclude that the policy was effective in limiting crime rate increases to anticipated and low-level offenses while achieving its primary aim of decarceration.
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宣告、制裁力度与犯罪:47号提案与洛杉矶财产犯罪的因果分析
减刑政策主要通过减轻刑事制裁的严厉程度来降低监禁率。近年来,随着各州希望减少惩教支出,并开始扭转数十年来监禁人数增长的趋势,这些政策得到了广泛推广。然而,检验去中心化政策的实证研究相对较少。本研究评估了加州第47号提案(Prop 47)的影响,该提案减少了对各种低级犯罪的处罚。我们利用一系列因果方法(差异中的差异、三重差异和综合对照组分析)来估计该政策对洛杉矶财产犯罪率的影响;并研究导致这些影响的潜在机制。我们发现有力的证据表明,47号提案增加了洛杉矶的财产犯罪,这一发现在我们的研究方法中得到了体现。我们在越来越多关于第47号提案的文献的背景下讨论我们的发现;并得出结论,该政策有效地限制了预期和低水平犯罪的犯罪率增长,同时实现了解除隔离的主要目标。
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来源期刊
Justice Evaluation Journal
Justice Evaluation Journal CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY-
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
9
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