Ship Damage Stability Approval Document Generation by a Amonte Carlo Method

S. Krüger, Katja Aschenberg
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Abstract

The revised SOLAS 2020 damage stability regulations have a strong impact on possible future ship designs. To cope with these requirements, damage stability investigations must become a central part of the initial design phase, and many internal subdivision concepts need to be investigated. Unfortunately, if damage stability calculations are performed in the classical way, they are very time consuming with respect to modelling and computational time. This fact has impeded the consequent subdivision optimization in the past. Therefore, a simulation procedure for damage stability problems was developed which treats damage stability as a stochastic process which was modeled by a Monte Carlo simulation. If statistical damage distributions are once known, the Monte Carlo simulation delivers a population of damages which can be automatically related to certain damage cases. These damage cases can then be investigated with respect to their survivability. Applying this principle to damage stability problems reduces the computational effort drastically where at the same time no more manual modelling is required. This development does especially support the initial design phase of the compartmentation and leads to a safer and more efficient design. If this very efficient simulation principle shall now also be used after the initial design phase for the generation of approval documents, additional information needs to be generated by the simulation method which is not directly obtained during the simulation: This includes detailed individual probabilities in all three directions and the integration of all damage cases into predefined damage zones. This results in fact in a kind of reverse engineering of the manual damage stability process to automatically obtain this required information. It can be demonstrated that the time to obtain the final documents for the damage stability approval can be drastically reduced by implementing this principle.
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基于蒙特卡罗法的船舶损稳性批准文件生成
修订后的SOLAS 2020损伤稳定性规则对未来可能的船舶设计有很大的影响。为了满足这些要求,损伤稳定性研究必须成为初始设计阶段的核心部分,并且需要研究许多内部细分概念。不幸的是,如果用经典的方法进行损伤稳定性计算,在建模和计算时间方面非常耗时。这一事实阻碍了过去随之进行的细分优化。为此,提出了一种损伤稳定性问题的模拟方法,将损伤稳定性看作一个随机过程,并采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对其进行建模。如果统计损害分布是已知的,蒙特卡罗模拟提供的损害人口,可以自动关联到某些损害情况。然后就可以调查这些损害案例的生存能力。将这一原理应用于破坏稳定性问题大大减少了计算工作量,同时不再需要人工建模。这一发展确实特别支持分隔的初始设计阶段,并导致更安全,更有效的设计。如果在初始设计阶段之后还使用这种非常有效的模拟原理生成批准文件,则需要通过模拟方法生成额外的信息,这些信息不是在模拟过程中直接获得的:这包括所有三个方向上的详细个体概率,以及将所有损伤情况集成到预定义的损伤区域中。这实际上导致了一种逆向工程的人工破坏稳定过程自动获得这一所需的信息。可以证明,通过实施这一原则,可以大大缩短获得损伤稳定性批准的最终文件的时间。
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