COVID-19 Prognosis and Mortality Risk Predictions from Symptoms: A Cloud-Based Smartphone Application

Abstract

The coronavirus pandemic overwhelmed many countries and their healthcare systems. Shortage of testing kits and Intensive-Care-Unit (ICU) beds for critical patients have become a norm in most developing countries. This has prompted the need to rapidly identify the COVID-19 patients to stop the spread of the virus and also to find critical patients. The latter is imperative for determining the state of critically ill patients as quickly as possible. This will lower the number of deaths from the infection. In this paper, we propose a cloud-based smartphone application for the early prognosis of COVID-19 infected patients and also predict their mortality risk using their symptoms. Moreover, we heuristically identified the most important symptoms necessary for making such predictions. We have successfully reduced the number of features by almost half for the prognosis and by more than a third for forecasting the mortality risk, compared to the contemporary studies. The application makes the real-time analysis using machine learning models, designed and stored in the cloud. Our machine learning model demonstrates an accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score of 97.72%, 100%, 95.55%, and 97.70%, respectively, in identifying the COVID-19 infected patients and with an accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score of 90.83%, 88.47%, 92.94%, and 90.65%, respectively, in forecasting the mortality risk from the infection. The real-time cloud-based approach yields faster responses, which is critical in the time of pandemic for mitigating the infection spread and aiding in the efficient management of the limited ICU resources.