Fuzzy expert maps for risk management systems

Abstract

After widely known implementations of perfect ideas, expressed by researchers R. Axelrod, L. Zadeh and B. Kosko, the fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) became an important tool for decision makers in various practical areas, such as business evaluation, risk management, international policy making, medical diagnostics and others. The principle possibility of FCM involvement into a regional oceanic modeling system (ROMS) was presented during the US/EU Baltic International Symposium in Klaipeda in May 2006. Todaypsilas experience permits to extend the concept of FCM nodes, including additional fuzzy expert knowledge and enriching the representation of real situations under consideration. This paper presents a systematic approach, based on the authorspsila research, to the idea of FCM extension and its transformation into a rule-based fuzzy expert map (FEM), presents a simplified fragment of FEM use for a port security system, and discusses further perspectives of developing new tools for decision makers in risk management systems in general.