Optimal quarantine, isolation, and social distancing strategies for COVID-19 based on a mathematical model

Abstract

Around 221 countries in the world are currently suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic and the World Health Organization reported there are 217.7 million confirmed cases with 4.5 million deaths tolls as of 31st August 2021. Until a cure is found, it is more appropriate to follow the health guidelines recommended by authorities. Theoretically, forecasting the courses and possible outcomes of such a pandemic is crucial for healthcare sectors to make decisions in advance. This paper aims to find optimal quarantine, isolation, and social distancing strategies for COVID-19 based on the SEIQJR mathematical model with a proper cost analysis. Minimising the cost of the controlling process of diseases is very important for public health policymakers. An optimal control problem is considered with a proposed cost functional which is minimised to yield optimal control strategies. We subsequently insert an inequality state constraint to the problem by considering the possible maximum capacities of hospitals. Copyright © 2022 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.