Clinical scoring for early detection of prediabetes in Egyptian population

Abstract

Background: Prediabetes is a wide spread condition where blood glucose is above normal, but it does not measure up to the criteria of diabetes mellitus. Yet there is no national scoring system for prediabetes according to the potential risk factors. Methods: A case-control study has been carried out in Mansoura Specialized Hospital. Subjects have been recruited from out-patients clinic in the period from October 2018 to August 2019. Those with prediabetes had been assigned to be the case group whereas control subjects were those who had a normal HbA1C. A scoring system was based on risk factors of prediabetes by use demographics data including information about age and sex. Results:. In the current study participants with obesity have 4.9 times higher odds to exhibit prediabetes (a score of 16 points is assigned to those with obesity). Participants who are current smokers have 3 times higher odds to exhibit prediabetes (a score of 11 points is assigned to current smokers). Participants with lack of moderate physical activity have 2.6 times higher odds to exhibit prediabetes (a score of 10 points is assigned to those who lack moderate physical activity). Binary logistic regression was run to assess the performance of Egyptian Prediabetes risk score in predicting the likelihood of prediabetes in Egyptian patients. The model is statistically significant ( 2 [1] = 60.684, P<0.001), and it correctly classified 75% of cases. The model has sensitivity, and positive predictive value of 74%, and specificity, and negative predictive value of 76%. Mansoura Medical Journal (Official Journal of Mansoura Faculty of Medicine) pISSN: 1110-211X; eISSN: 2735-3990