Hybrid Modeling In Unconventional Reservoirs To Forecast Estimated Ultimate Recovery

Abstract

Machine learning models have worked as a robust tool in forecasting and optimization processes for wells in conventional, data-rich reservoirs. In unconventional reservoirs however, given the large ranges of uncertainty, purely data-driven, machine learning models have not yet proven to be repeatable and scalable. In such cases, integrating physics-based reservoir simulation methods along with machine learning techniques can be used as a solution to alleviate these limitations. The objective of this study is to provide an overview along with examples of implementing this integrated approach for the purpose of forecasting Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) in shale reservoirs. This study is solely based on synthetic data. To generate data for one section of a reservoir, a full-physics reservoir simulator has been used. Simulated data from this section is used to train a machine learning model, which provides EUR as the output. Production from another section of the field with a different range of reservoir properties is then forecasted using a physics-based model. Using the earlier trained model, production forecasting for this section of the reservoir is then carried out to illustrate the integrated approach to EUR forecasting for a section of the reservoir that is not data rich. The integrated approach, or hybrid modeling, production forecasting for different sections of the reservoir that were data-starved, are illustrated. Using the physics-based model, the uncertainty in EUR predictions made by the machine learning model has been reduced and a more accurate forecasting has been attained. This method is primarily applicable in reservoirs, such as unconventionals, where one section of the field that has been developed has a substantial amount of data, whereas, the other section of the field will be data starved. The hybrid model was consistently able to forecast EUR at an acceptable level of accuracy, thereby, highlighting the benefits of this type of an integrated approach. This study advances the application of repeatable and scalable hybrid models in unconventional reservoirs and highlights its benefits as compared to using either physics-based or machine-learning based models separately.