{"title":"Hedgehogs vs. Foxes: Improving the Accuracy of Predictions","authors":"H. Duhon","doi":"10.2118/1215-0005-OGF","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ank you to the many readers who commented on my column, “Oil at USD 20 per Barrel: Can It Be?” in the October issue of Oil and Gas Facilities. e future oil price is clearly on everyone’s mind. When I wrote the article, I thought that generating a con dent prediction was hopeless. Based on your comments and suggestions, articles on energy scenario evaluations by consultant Jorge Leis, a news program on forecasting by journalist Fareed Zakaria, and a book on superforecasting by professor Philip Tetlock, I have changed my mind. I believe that oil price can be determined with reasonable con dence, and the key to such forecasting is aggregative contingent estimation (ACE).","PeriodicalId":19446,"journal":{"name":"Oil and gas facilities","volume":"14 1","pages":"5-7"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Oil and gas facilities","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2118/1215-0005-OGF","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
ank you to the many readers who commented on my column, “Oil at USD 20 per Barrel: Can It Be?” in the October issue of Oil and Gas Facilities. e future oil price is clearly on everyone’s mind. When I wrote the article, I thought that generating a con dent prediction was hopeless. Based on your comments and suggestions, articles on energy scenario evaluations by consultant Jorge Leis, a news program on forecasting by journalist Fareed Zakaria, and a book on superforecasting by professor Philip Tetlock, I have changed my mind. I believe that oil price can be determined with reasonable con dence, and the key to such forecasting is aggregative contingent estimation (ACE).
感谢很多读者对我的专栏“油价能达到每桶20美元吗?”发表评论。，发表在《石油和天然气设施》(Oil and Gas Facilities) 10月刊上。未来的油价显然是每个人都关心的问题。当我写这篇文章的时候，我认为做出一个可信的预测是没有希望的。根据你们的评论和建议，还有顾问Jorge Leis关于能源情景评估的文章，记者Fareed Zakaria关于预测的新闻节目，以及Philip Tetlock教授关于超级预测的书，我改变了主意。我认为油价是可以合理确定的，而这种预测的关键是总条件估计(ACE)。
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