{"title":"An optimal vaccination strategy for pandemic management and its impact on economic recovery","authors":"Vansh Kodesia, Ankur Suri, Sarita Azad","doi":"10.18520/cs/v124/i3/319-326","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been devastating for countries across the world. We propose a novel method for estimating reproduction number ( R 0 ) using community mobility to obtain optimal vaccination coverage (OVC). Different scenarios for achieving the desired immunization rates are evaluated using nonlinear regression models. The impact of recovery rates on mobility is also assessed to determine how the economy would have fared in various scenarios. Lock-downs due to COVID-19, which restricted mobility, were the main cause of the decline in GDP. For the city of Mumbai in India, with an increase in recovery rate from 1% to 5%, it was observed that mobility and thus economic activity might have been restored to some extent. The findings presented here may aid the governing bodies in developing more effective emergency response plans.","PeriodicalId":11194,"journal":{"name":"Current Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1000,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Current Science","FirstCategoryId":"103","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.18520/cs/v124/i3/319-326","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been devastating for countries across the world. We propose a novel method for estimating reproduction number ( R 0 ) using community mobility to obtain optimal vaccination coverage (OVC). Different scenarios for achieving the desired immunization rates are evaluated using nonlinear regression models. The impact of recovery rates on mobility is also assessed to determine how the economy would have fared in various scenarios. Lock-downs due to COVID-19, which restricted mobility, were the main cause of the decline in GDP. For the city of Mumbai in India, with an increase in recovery rate from 1% to 5%, it was observed that mobility and thus economic activity might have been restored to some extent. The findings presented here may aid the governing bodies in developing more effective emergency response plans.
期刊介绍：
Current Science, published every fortnight by the Association, in collaboration with the Indian Academy of Sciences, is the leading interdisciplinary science journal from India. It was started in 1932 by the then stalwarts of Indian science such as CV Raman, Birbal Sahni, Meghnad Saha, Martin Foster and S.S. Bhatnagar. In 2011, the journal completed one hundred volumes. The journal is intended as a medium for communication and discussion of important issues that concern science and scientific activities. Besides full length research articles and shorter research communications, the journal publishes review articles, scientific correspondence and commentaries, news and views, comments on recently published research papers, opinions on scientific activity, articles on universities, Indian laboratories and institutions, interviews with scientists, personal information, book reviews, etc. It is also a forum to discuss issues and problems faced by science and scientists and an effective medium of interaction among scientists in the country and abroad. Current Science is read by a large community of scientists and the circulation has been continuously going up.
Current Science publishes special sections on diverse and topical themes of interest and this has served as a platform for the scientific fraternity to get their work acknowledged and highlighted. Some of the special sections that have been well received in the recent past include remote sensing, waves and symmetry, seismology in India, nanomaterials, AIDS, Alzheimer''s disease, molecular biology of ageing, cancer, cardiovascular diseases, Indian monsoon, water, transport, and mountain weather forecasting in India, to name a few. Contributions to these special issues ‘which receive widespread attention’ are from leading scientists in India and abroad.
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