Adjustments in the Labor and Real Estate Markets: Estimates of the Time Series Variation in the Natural Vacancy Rate

Abstract

Large similarities exist between the labor and real estate space markets. The natural vacancy rate (NVR) and the natural rate of unemployment (NRU) are important in modeling these markets. The real estate literature has drawn on early modeling of the labor market and has predominantly assumed the NVR to be constant in time. We consider a range of approaches to estimate cross-sectional and time variation in the NVR for the US office market. The results provide no evidence for a time trend, but the NVR may still vary temporally although it is difficult to identify plausible and consistent time variation.