Public Debt Path and Long-Memory in Fiscal Data: An Analysis for a Developing Country

Abstract

This article contributed to the literature on fiscal rules as we found evidence of expected inflationary effects as a result of lower fiscal cyclicality, even after an appropriate treatment for long-memory in the data, thereby in contrast to the most part of the related published studies, which have adopted conventional unit root tests. We used Brazil as our case of study, which represents a relevant example of developing country nowadays. We then found evidence of a pro-cyclical fiscal rule in Brazil, mainly after 2014, so that it diverged from the public debt sustainability principle developed by Bohn (1995; 2005).