Game Analysis on the effect of consumer coupons and its impact on CPI

IF 2.9 2区 数学 Q1 ECONOMICS Journal of Business & Economic Statistics Pub Date : 2023-08-14 DOI:10.58567/jes01020001
Xiuhai Huang, Ping Yu
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Abstract

According to economic theory and common sense, the issuance of consumption coupons on one hand stimulated the increasing of residents' consumption, but on the other pushed up the price level. In this paper, using the theory of mechanism design, the game model was built to analyze the relationship between the effect of consumer coupons during the epidemic and the number of merchants participated. The results show that the smaller the merchants’ number, the weaker the coupons’ effect, vice versa. Then, using KNN regression method, combined with the monthly year-on-year data of CPI from 1998 to 2020, this paper analyzes the changes of CPI forecast value and actual value in the first 10 months of 2020, finding that the actual value of CPI is higher than the predicted one during the first two months of 2020, but lower from March 2020 on, which further verifies the conclusion of game analysis.
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消费券效应及其对CPI影响的博弈分析
根据经济学理论和常识,消费券的发行一方面刺激了居民消费的增加,另一方面又推高了物价水平。本文运用机制设计理论,建立博弈模型,分析疫情期间消费券的效果与参与商家数量之间的关系。结果表明,商家数量越少,优惠券的效果越弱,反之亦然。然后,运用KNN回归方法,结合1998 - 2020年CPI月度同比数据,分析2020年前10个月CPI预测值与实际值的变化,发现2020年前2个月CPI实际值高于预测值,而2020年3月以后CPI实际值低于预测值,进一步验证了博弈分析的结论。
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来源期刊
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 数学-统计学与概率论
CiteScore
5.00
自引率
6.70%
发文量
98
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (JBES) publishes a range of articles, primarily applied statistical analyses of microeconomic, macroeconomic, forecasting, business, and finance related topics. More general papers in statistics, econometrics, computation, simulation, or graphics are also appropriate if they are immediately applicable to the journal''s general topics of interest. Articles published in JBES contain significant results, high-quality methodological content, excellent exposition, and usually include a substantive empirical application.
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