Demographic Shifts Influencing the Political Landscape of the Lake Victoria Basin in Uganda

Abstract

High population growth in Uganda is associated with substantial reduction in Infant and Child mortality without commensurate reduction in fertility. Kampala city (100% urban) and Wakiso district (59% urban) are densely populated with 9,429 and 1,100 people per square km respectively (UBOS [1]). The paper explains strong links between high population growth rate of 3.03% / annum, high rate of urbanization (5.1% / annum) one of the major demographic shifts in the country and the changing political landscape of Kampala City and Wakiso district. The paper utilizes both primary and secondary data. Time series gridded population density data was obtained from the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) database and processed in ArcGIS 10.1 program. Change detection analysis for three periods; 2000, 2010 and 2015 was conducted to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of population density in the Lake Victoria Basin. Primary data was obtained from in-depth interviews. Secondary population data was obtained from Uganda Population and Housing Census results (UPHC) 1991, 2002 and 2014; and Uganda Presidential Election results of 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016. Results based on the imagery analysis of the gridded data reveals increasing concentration and hotspot of population density in the Lake Victoria Basin signifying it not only an economic center but also a political hotspot region. The paper reveals that high population growth rate and urbanization have influenced dependency ratio, unemployment, underemployment, poverty, standards of social services and infrastructure as well as political landscape and ramblings. It explains why the National Resistance Movement (NRM) ruling party despite its national strength performs poorly in the urban areas as compared to opposition led by Forum for Democratic Change (FDC). The paper recommends fast tracking the establishment of Kampala metropolitan area, consultative development planning that balances economic and environmental concerns and emphasizing urban development as opposed to creation of new districts.