Complexities in the energy-transport co-transformation

Abstract

Managing the transformation to a global low-carbon energy sector is challenging. Long-lived assets, large capital projects, and long lead times require multi-decadal transition plans. Of course, the end state of the energy system depends on the evolution of demands from energy-consuming sectors. This can perhaps best be illustrated in the changing relationship between energy supply and transportation energy demand. As the transport sector substitutes low-carbon fuels, including electricity, for fossil fuels, the locations of energy production and distribution supply chains are likely to shift. With different production processes for these fuels and different efficiencies of the vehicles that consume them, the energy intensity of transport is going to be different. Moreover, as transport begins to rely more on direct electrification, the temporal coupling of energy supply and transportation demand will tighten dramatically. While this coupling will provide some opportunities, such as vehicle-to-grid services, it will also present challenges to existing markets and traditional grid management strategies. Thus, effective management of the global energy transition requires a sensitivity to the simultaneous co-transformation in transportation. The papers in this collection illustrate the breadth of impacts on the energy sector from different ways the transport sector could plausibly evolve in a low-carbon future. Exactly how the transportation transformation will unfold remains to be seen, and it may evolve differently, and over different timelines, in different regions. Nevertheless, despite the