Assessment of the Influence of Macroeconomic Shocks on Deposit Resources of Commercial Banks in the Russian Federation and the EU Countries

Abstract

Economic process management takes place in the context of sharply increased shock and turbulence components, when business environment is extremely unstable, and risk, an inevitable element of a managed system, becomes even more unpredictable as a result of the increased influence of systemic factors. Considering the impact of economic shocks on socio-economic welfare, as well as the reaction, the depth of the consequences, and the susceptibility of countries to shock impulses, the issue of assessing the possible consequences for all economic entities, including banks, became acute. Using economic and mathematical tools, including the calculation of regression coefficients and relative velocities, the study determined the influence of macroeconomic shocks and their main types for the economies of the Russian Federation and EU countries. The specificity of the impact of economic shows on the deposits was shown. Conclusions were drawn regarding the impact of shock impulse indicators on the savings behaviour of depositors, the level of inflow and stability of bank deposits in the Russian Federation and EU countries. It was established that for the Russian economy, the instantaneous impact of all assessed factors on the banks deposit resources is an important feature of the impact of shocks. For European countries, there is a time lag with the transmission of impulses through individual development indicators. The proposed method allows analysing and forecasting the modern crises impact, including the projection of the banks’ deposit activity in the face of the “new normal”. Using this data, future studies may predict a combination of shocks that can affect bank deposit resources, considering the peculiarities of a country development.