Growing demands for downscaling of climate information — examples from predictions of future sea levels

S. Nerheim
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

2007 marked a shift in the perception of climate change. In Sweden, a wet and stormy winter coincided with increased coverage of climate change. Among the most important ones were the Stern report, IPCC's Fourth assessment report (AR4) and the national investigation on climate and risk. During 2007, the demand for future climate information to support decision makers increased significantly. According to IPCC, the global mean sea level is predicted to rise between 18 to 59 cm, and a further increase due to regional effects should be included for the Baltic Sea. In the Bothnian Sea, the post-glacial rebound is large and will continue to outweigh or balance the sea level rise during the next 100 years. However, in the southern Baltic, the apparent land uplift is negative, and sea level rise will lead to increasing problems with flooding, erosion and rising ground water levels. SMHI water level observations show that the rate of sea level rise has increased during the last decades. Results from AR4 and four climate scenarios from the coupled Rossby center model for the Baltic Sea, RCAO, are used to provide scenarios of sea level rise in the Baltic Sea for 2071-2100. End users are local authorities in charge of land areas that will be heavily affected should sea levels rise or entrepreneurs who need background for construction design. For decision makers, continued research on the effects of climate change regarding sea level and other climate factors is important for planning purposes, and continued observational and modelling efforts should be combined with downscaling of climate model output to enable information on a local or regional scale.
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对降低气候信息尺度的需求日益增长——以未来海平面预测为例
2007年标志着人们对气候变化看法的转变。在瑞典,一个多雨多雨的冬天恰逢气候变化的报道增多。其中最重要的是《斯特恩报告》、IPCC第四次评估报告(AR4)和国家气候与风险调查。2007年,决策者对未来气候信息的需求显著增加。根据政府间气候变化专门委员会的预测,全球平均海平面预计将上升18至59厘米,由于区域影响,波罗的海的海平面将进一步上升。在波罗的海,冰川后的反弹很大,并将在未来100年内继续超过或平衡海平面上升。然而,在波罗的海南部,明显的陆地隆起是负的,海平面上升将导致越来越多的洪水、侵蚀和地下水位上升等问题。SMHI的水位观测表明,海平面上升的速度在过去几十年中有所增加。AR4的结果和波罗的海耦合rosby中心模式(RCAO)的4个气候情景,被用来提供2071-2100年波罗的海海平面上升的情景。最终用户是负责土地地区的地方当局,如果海平面上升,这些地区将受到严重影响,或者需要建筑设计背景的企业家。对于决策者来说,继续研究气候变化对海平面和其他气候因子的影响对于规划的目的是重要的,并且应将持续的观测和模拟工作与气候模式输出的缩小尺度结合起来,以获得局部或区域尺度的信息。
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