Potential growth in Turkey: Sources and trends

IF 2 Q2 ECONOMICS Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI:10.1016/j.cbrev.2022.01.002
Orhun Sevinç , Ufuk Demiroğlu , Emre Çakır , E. Meltem Baştan
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

This paper estimates potential growth in Turkey using a production function estimation approach. Our approach aims to measure the inputs of production in the most detailed fashion that is possible and empirically addresses concepts of sustainable potential growth for Turkey. While developing measures of the sources of potential growth, we provide a thorough discussion of the estimated trends in labor force participation, capital growth by asset type, and total factor productivity since the mid-2000s. Our results suggest that the key driver of potential growth has increasingly been capital accumulation. The declining trend in the positive TFP growth stands out as the key area of improvement for potential growth.

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土耳其的潜在增长:来源和趋势
本文使用生产函数估计方法估计土耳其的潜在增长。我们的方法旨在以最详细的方式衡量生产投入,这是可能的,并在经验上解决了土耳其可持续潜在增长的概念。在制定潜在增长来源指标的同时,我们对2000年代中期以来劳动力参与率、按资产类型划分的资本增长和全要素生产率的估计趋势进行了深入讨论。我们的研究结果表明,潜在增长的关键驱动力越来越多地是资本积累。全要素生产率正增长的下降趋势是潜在增长改善的关键领域。
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来源期刊
Central Bank Review
Central Bank Review ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
9
审稿时长
69 days
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