The Symmetric and Asymmetric in the Nexus Tourism and Economic Development in China

Tsung-Pao Wu, Hung-Che Wu, Ge Ye, Xi Yao, Feng Chen
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Abstract

Abstract To account for potential asymmetries in the relationship, this study applies new bootstrap symmetric and asymmetric multivariate panel Granger causality test to examine the causal relationship between international tourism receipts (ITRs) and economic growth in China for the period from 1995 to 2019. The result supports evidence for the symmetric causality in Henan, showing significant one-way Granger causality from ITRs to real gross domestic product (RGDP). They also indicate that Hunan has significant one-way Granger causality from RGDP to ITRs. These results denote that the hidden tourism-led growth hypothesis is valid in Heilongjiang, Henan, Hubei and Jiangxi.
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中国旅游与经济发展关系中的对称与不对称
摘要为了解释这种关系中潜在的不对称性,本研究采用新的自提对称和不对称多元面板格兰杰因果检验来检验1995 - 2019年中国国际旅游收入(itr)与经济增长之间的因果关系。研究结果支持了对称性因果关系的证据,表明itr与实际国内生产总值(RGDP)之间存在显著的单向格兰杰因果关系。结果还表明,湖南RGDP与itr之间存在显著的单向格兰杰因果关系。这些结果表明,隐性旅游带动增长假说在黑龙江、河南、湖北和江西是有效的。
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