Estimation of final standings in football competitions with a premature ending: the case of COVID-19

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2021-09-02 DOI:10.1007/s10182-021-00415-7

P. Gorgi, S. J. Koopman, R. Lit

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引用次数: 6

Abstract

We study an alternative approach to determine the final league table in football competitions with a premature ending. For several countries, a premature ending of the 2019/2020 football season has occurred due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose a model-based method as a possible alternative to the use of the incomplete standings to determine the final table. This method measures the performance of the teams in the matches of the season that have been played and predicts the remaining non-played matches through a paired-comparison model. The main advantage of the method compared to the incomplete standings is that it takes account of the bias in the performance measure due to the schedule of the matches in a season. Therefore, the resulting ranking of the teams based on our proposed method can be regarded as more fair in this respect. A forecasting study based on historical data of seven of the main European competitions is used to validate the method. The empirical results suggest that the model-based approach produces more accurate predictions of the true final standings than those based on the incomplete standings.

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过早结束的足球比赛最终排名的估计:以COVID-19为例

我们研究了一种替代方法来确定最终联赛表在足球比赛与过早结束。对一些国家来说，2019/2020足球赛季因COVID-19大流行而提前结束。我们提出了一种基于模型的方法，作为使用不完整排名来确定最终表格的可能替代方法。这种方法衡量球队在本赛季已进行的比赛中的表现，并通过配对比较模型预测剩余的未进行的比赛。与不完整的排名相比，该方法的主要优点是它考虑了由于赛季比赛安排而导致的表现衡量偏差。因此，基于我们提出的方法得出的队伍排名在这方面可以被认为是更加公平的。基于七个欧洲主要赛事历史数据的预测研究被用来验证该方法。实证结果表明，基于模型的方法比基于不完全排名的方法对真实最终排名的预测更准确。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.

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