Intention to Migrate Due to COVID-19: a Study for El Salvador.

Abstract

Economic and social conditions have deteriorated worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic. Migration theory and international organizations indicate that these increasingly fragile social conditions represent powerful incentives to migrate. Normally, studies addressing international migration and COVID-19 focus on transit and destination countries, with substantially less literature centered on origin nations. Trying to close that gap, the present article aims to identify and quantify economic determinants that explain the intention of Salvadorians to migrate abroad. Using a probabilistic sample and a logistic model, a number of renowned economic variables for migration studies were used to investigate Salvadorian's intention to emigrate. Results demonstrated a stark reduction in migration intentions in 2020. Moreover, the risk of losing one's job is by far the most prominent factor explaining the intention to migrate. Other aspects, such as employment and salaries, also showed statistically significant values. Additionally, results report women being less likely to migrate and age to have a negligible effect. The text concludes by indicating some public initiatives that could be implemented to support people who choose to act upon their intentions and embark on emigration.