Cost-effectiveness of future lockdown policies against the COVID-19 pandemic.

IF 1.6 Q3 HEALTH POLICY & SERVICES Health Services Management Research Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI:10.1177/09514848221080687

Afschin Gandjour

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引用次数: 5

Abstract

Aim: While the European Union (EU) has approved several COVID-19 vaccines, new variants of concern may be able to escape immunity. The purpose of this study is to project the cost-effectiveness of future lockdown policies in conjunction with a variant-adapted vaccine booster. The exemplary scenario foresees a 25% decline in the vaccine protection against severe disease.

Methods: A decision model was constructed using, for example, information on age-specific fatality rates, intensive care unit (ICU) costs and outcomes, and herd protection threshold. The costs and benefits of a future lockdown strategy were determined from a societal viewpoint under three future scenarios-a booster shot's efficacy of 0%, 50%, and 95%.

Results: The cost-effectiveness ratio of a lockdown policy in conjunction with a booster dose with 95% efficacy is €44,214 per life year gained. A lockdown is cost-effective when the probability of approving a booster dose with 95% efficacy is at least 48% (76% when considering uncertainty in input factors).

Conclusion: In this exemplary scenario, a future lockdown policy appears to be cost-effective if the probability of approving a variant-adapted vaccine booster with an efficacy of 95% is at least 48%.

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未来针对COVID-19大流行的封锁政策的成本效益。

目的:虽然欧盟(EU)已经批准了几种COVID-19疫苗，但令人担忧的新变种可能能够逃脱免疫。本研究的目的是预测未来封锁政策与变异适应疫苗增强剂结合的成本效益。在示范情景中，预防严重疾病的疫苗将下降25%。方法:利用特定年龄死亡率、重症监护病房(ICU)费用和结果、畜群保护阈值等信息构建决策模型。从社会角度出发，在三种未来情景下确定了未来封锁战略的成本和收益——强化疫苗的效力为0%、50%和95%。结果:封锁政策与95%效力的加强剂相结合的成本-效果比为每生命年增加44,214欧元。当批准效力为95%的加强剂的概率至少为48%(考虑输入因素的不确定性时为76%)时，封锁具有成本效益。结论:在这一示例情景中，如果批准效力为95%的变体适应疫苗增强剂的概率至少为48%，那么未来的封锁政策似乎具有成本效益。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Health Services Management Research HEALTH POLICY & SERVICES-

CiteScore

4.00

自引率

4.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： Health Services Management Research (HSMR) is an authoritative international peer-reviewed journal which publishes theoretically and empirically rigorous research on questions of enduring interest to health-care organizations and systems throughout the world. Examining the real issues confronting health services management, it provides an independent view and cutting edge evidence-based research to guide policy-making and management decision-making. HSMR aims to be a forum serving an international community of academics and researchers on the one hand and healthcare managers, executives, policymakers and clinicians and all health professionals on the other. HSMR wants to make a substantial contribution to both research and managerial practice, with particular emphasis placed on publishing studies which offer actionable findings and on promoting knowledge mobilisation toward theoretical advances.