{"title":"Cost-effectiveness of future lockdown policies against the COVID-19 pandemic.","authors":"Afschin Gandjour","doi":"10.1177/09514848221080687","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Aim: </strong>While the European Union (EU) has approved several COVID-19 vaccines, new variants of concern may be able to escape immunity. The purpose of this study is to project the cost-effectiveness of future lockdown policies in conjunction with a variant-adapted vaccine booster. The exemplary scenario foresees a 25% decline in the vaccine protection against severe disease.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A decision model was constructed using, for example, information on age-specific fatality rates, intensive care unit (ICU) costs and outcomes, and herd protection threshold. The costs and benefits of a future lockdown strategy were determined from a societal viewpoint under three future scenarios-a booster shot's efficacy of 0%, 50%, and 95%.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The cost-effectiveness ratio of a lockdown policy in conjunction with a booster dose with 95% efficacy is €44,214 per life year gained. A lockdown is cost-effective when the probability of approving a booster dose with 95% efficacy is at least 48% (76% when considering uncertainty in input factors).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>In this exemplary scenario, a future lockdown policy appears to be cost-effective if the probability of approving a variant-adapted vaccine booster with an efficacy of 95% is at least 48%.</p>","PeriodicalId":45801,"journal":{"name":"Health Services Management Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8984600/pdf/10.1177_09514848221080687.pdf","citationCount":"5","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Health Services Management Research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09514848221080687","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"HEALTH POLICY & SERVICES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Abstract
Aim: While the European Union (EU) has approved several COVID-19 vaccines, new variants of concern may be able to escape immunity. The purpose of this study is to project the cost-effectiveness of future lockdown policies in conjunction with a variant-adapted vaccine booster. The exemplary scenario foresees a 25% decline in the vaccine protection against severe disease.
Methods: A decision model was constructed using, for example, information on age-specific fatality rates, intensive care unit (ICU) costs and outcomes, and herd protection threshold. The costs and benefits of a future lockdown strategy were determined from a societal viewpoint under three future scenarios-a booster shot's efficacy of 0%, 50%, and 95%.
Results: The cost-effectiveness ratio of a lockdown policy in conjunction with a booster dose with 95% efficacy is €44,214 per life year gained. A lockdown is cost-effective when the probability of approving a booster dose with 95% efficacy is at least 48% (76% when considering uncertainty in input factors).
Conclusion: In this exemplary scenario, a future lockdown policy appears to be cost-effective if the probability of approving a variant-adapted vaccine booster with an efficacy of 95% is at least 48%.
期刊介绍:
Health Services Management Research (HSMR) is an authoritative international peer-reviewed journal which publishes theoretically and empirically rigorous research on questions of enduring interest to health-care organizations and systems throughout the world. Examining the real issues confronting health services management, it provides an independent view and cutting edge evidence-based research to guide policy-making and management decision-making. HSMR aims to be a forum serving an international community of academics and researchers on the one hand and healthcare managers, executives, policymakers and clinicians and all health professionals on the other. HSMR wants to make a substantial contribution to both research and managerial practice, with particular emphasis placed on publishing studies which offer actionable findings and on promoting knowledge mobilisation toward theoretical advances.